Welcome to the latest issue of Direct Driller. Alongside our usual in-depth farmer focus coverage, this edition features a preview of our favourite show, Groundswell, where the conversations around soil health, resilience and input reduction are set to be more relevant than ever. And looking at the current global situation, that relevance is not just ecological, it is acutely financial.
As we head into the spring of 2026, the agricultural sector is once again being reminded of its vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. The escalating conflict in Iran and the subsequent disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have sent ripples through the global energy and fertiliser markets. With approximately one-third of the world’s fertiliser trade passing through this vital maritime chokepoint, the impact on prices has been swift and severe. Nitrogen costs have spiked, with urea reaching its highest price point since the post-Ukraine shock of 2022, and red diesel prices for farmers have surged by around 60 percent. The effects are already showing in Australia.
For many in the wider arable sector, this volatility brings a familiar sense of dread. Fertiliser traders are struggling to update their daily price lists fast enough, and there are widespread reports of farmers being unable to secure confirmed prices until the product is actually delivered to the farm gate. It is a precarious position for businesses already operating on tight margins, especially when average arable farm incomes have recently hit their lowest levels in two decades.
However, for those who have already committed to regenerative farming practices, the perspective is less dire. If you have spent the last few years focusing on soil biology, integrating cover crops and systematically reducing your reliance on synthetic inputs, you are now in the strongest possible position to ride this wave of uncertainty. The regenerative approach is no longer just about environmental stewardship; it has become a robust risk management strategy. When the cost of a tonne of nitrogen jumps by £50 overnight, the farmer who has halved their application rates feels only half the pain.
In fact, given the current market dynamics, there has probably never been a better time to conduct that low-nitrogen trial you have been putting off. If you were looking for a financial incentive to see just how far your soil biology can carry a crop without reaching for the bag, the Strait of Hormuz has just provided it. Consider it an involuntary, geopolitically mandated on-farm experiment.
Jokes aside, the immediate outlook for the UK harvest remains largely positive. Despite the background noise of global markets, the reality on the ground is that crops are looking generally robust. The fundamentals of the growing season are sound, even if the economics of the inputs are volatile.
Furthermore, there is a reassuring buffer for the current season. The vast majority of growers have already purchased and taken delivery of their fertiliser requirements for the 2026 harvest. The immediate price spikes, while alarming, will not drastically alter the cost of production for the crops currently in the ground. The real concern lies ahead, in the purchasing decisions for autumn and the 2027 season.
The hope, of course, is that diplomatic efforts will ease the tensions in the Middle East and supply chains will normalise before the bulk of the autumn fertiliser purchasing begins. The World Farmers’ Organisation has already issued urgent calls for coordinated action to stabilise markets and protect global food security, highlighting the critical nature of the situation. But hope is not a strategy.
What is a strategy is the continued transition towards farming systems that are less dependent on the whims of international conflict and the chokepoints of global shipping. The farmers featured in this issue, and those gathering at Groundswell later this year, are proving that it is possible to build resilient, profitable businesses that are insulated from the worst of these input shocks. But none of us are immune.
So, as you read through this issue and prepare for the season ahead, take a moment to appreciate the resilience you have built into your system. The challenges of global agriculture are complex and ever-changing, but the solutions often start right beneath our feet.
